Deficitly

May 25, 2011

With all the commotion going on around us

Osama…..tornadoes….floods

The public has been spared the talk on the debt ceiling

Did you hear the gang of six talks fell apart?

They were seen as representing the best hope

For a bipartisan deal to reduce the deficit

Senator Tom Coburn dropped out

Citing differences over entitlement spending,

Saying the 3 Republicans and 3 Democrats were

Unable to bridge differences over Medicare and Social Security

The clock is ticking,

We already exceeded the debt limit.

Now we are just shuffling payments

While waiting for a resolve.

How did we get to
this point?

There is some great information on the internet about this
subject.

Stephen Bloch did some extensive research on the deficit

And how it relates to each President

His report is titled:

US Federal Deficits, Presidents and Congress

Below are some of the facts I found interesting

  • First data he found showing
    a deficit was traced back to 1910
  • The single best predictors
    of deficits for most of the century have been war.
  • Starting in the 1970’s, it
    became harder to see a connection between war and deficits:
    • Permanent deficits became
      a way of life, regardless of whether there was a war going on.
  • The Deficit did not break
    the $1 trillion mark until 1981
  • The Deficit did not break
    the $5 trillion mark until 1995
  • During the first seven
    years of G W Bush presidency, the deficit was increased by almost twice
    the dollar amount as it had been for 32 years. (Running from JFK through
    GHW Bush).
  • When GW Bush entered
    office the deficit was $5.807 trillion
    • When GW Bush left office
      the deficit ballooned to $11,909 trillion.
    • The deficit increased
      $6,102 trillion
  • Since Obama entered office
    the deficit has grown to $14,268 trillion
    • That an additional $2,359
      trillion

Some other interesting facts:

  • Military spending has
    increased 81% since the year 2000
  • Fraud constitutes at least
    ten percent ($100 billion) of the nearly one trillion in taxpayer dollars
    that Medicare and Medicaid will spend this year.
  • The current tax system of
    the United States will collect about 18% of the GDP(Gross Domestic
    Product)
  • Spending needs are much
    higher, currently around 24% of GDP.

What makes up the 24%?

I referred to an article by Jeffrey Sachs (Economist and
Director of Earth Institute, Columbia University)

Focusing on best estimates for 2021, a decade from now

  • Social Security outlays
    will total around 5.2% of GDP
    • As Americans age and as
      health care cost have multiplied, The cost of Social Security and
      Medicare have risen from 1.7% of GDP in 1980 to 5.1% of GDP in 2011
  • Medicare will total around
    3.6% of GDP
  • Medicaid, assuming no
    drastic cuts, will total around 2.9% of GDP
  • Other mandatory programs
    for the poor, such as food stamps, will total 2.1% of GDP
  • Total defense spending is
    around 5% of GDP, most agree that defense should be cut and be around 3% of
    GDP
  • Most projections put
    interest cost on debt around 2.7% of GDP
  • Discretionary spending
    (cost used on public goods and services that cannot be provided
    efficiently by the private economy alone) will be around 4.5% of GDP

Now if you go and add up all these categories,

You will see that cost will total around 24% of GDP

In Paul Ryan’s plan, taxes would be kept at 18% of GDP and
spending would be cut to 19% of GDP.
However the deficit is still expected to grow to $16 trillion by 2021.

The Obama plan would have a slightly higher tax collection,
around 19% of GDP (by allowing Bush tax cuts expire for those making over
$250,000), while allowing the deficit to grow to $19 trillion by 2021.

Guess what!!!!!

 

They are still going
the wrong way!!!!!

Many experts feel that both of these current plans, as
presented seem practically impossible.

In several opinion surveys,

The public has spoken clearly about what to do:

  • Do not balance the budget
    by slashing Medicare, Social Security, or programs for the poor;
  • Increase spending on
    education and infrastructure;
  • Tax the rich and giant
    corporations.

This is not a practical solution either…….

It is our responsibility to stop the bleeding

Everyone will have to proportionally share in the sacrifice

Will someone step forward and have the vision and leadership,

To usher in this era……….

Will the public be accepting to the reality of their
resolution….

Or will we continue to allow our excesses to undermine us.

Let us know your thoughts…… email george@hbsadvantage.com

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: