Tonight’s the Night

November 21, 2011

Tonight’s the night…..

 

Hurricane Swartz makes his long range winter forecast…

 

 

 

You know the guy with the bowtie?

 

 

How cold is it going to be?

 

How much snow will we get?

 

 

Remember last year?

 

We had that big snowstorm right around Thanksgiving…

 

 

What’s going on with this weather?

 

Here it is mid-November…..

 

Janet and I just got our winter clothes out

 

 

 

Dealing in the energy market

 

The one constant we discuss is temperature

 

 

Back in September

 

We were getting reports saying

 

 

 

The long range forecast calls for an exceptionally cold November

 

 

When will that start……

 

 

November 30th

 

 

 

Those statements kept pushing natural gas prices up

 

 

We held firm….

 

 

We waited….

 

 

We’ll see….

 

 

Here it is mid-November and temperatures are still in the 60s

 

Natural gas prices keep dropping

 

 

A whole market opportunity has opened up

 

 

With prices so low

 

We start to measure risk

 

 

How much lower can prices go?

 

 

 

Don’t you love this kind of stuff?

 

 

 

 

Can natural gas prices go lower?

 

 

Yes!!!

 

But there is more upside risk

 

 

 

With prices being sooooo low,

 

 

 

One cold snap and …

 

 

The market price can jump up fast…

 

 

 

It’s called the whiplash effect

 

 

 

Prices always go up faster…

 

 

And then they take their good old time coming back down

 

 

 

Now here’s my shameless HBS plug

 

 

For those businesses still buying natural gas from their local provider

 

This is a great time to lock into a very competitive fixed price contract

 

 

 

There we go….

 

I said it

 

 

Now the disclaimer…

 

 

Some circumstances may not allow you to qualify

 

            Your monthly usage may be too small

 

                                          or

           

            We find stop service notices on your bill

 

 

 

 

 

Pick it up Hutch

 

 

Let’s get back on topic

 

 

Ohhhhh…..OK

 

 

 

So……..

 

Hurricane….

 

 

What will you say?

 

 

How cold will it be?

 

 

How much snow will we get?

 

 

 

I just bought a new snow shovel last year

 

 

I’ll be ready

 

 

 

PS: This was written on Wednesday. If you want to know what Hurricane said, you will have to go online and Google it.

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