Gas It Up
June 30, 2016
The past 3 months
Natural gas prices have been on the rise
After establishing a new floor
With the Nymex dropping under $2.00 a dekatherm
It started an accent
And is now heading towards $3.00
That would be a 50% increase
What caused this sudden rise….
Some say…..
Supply / Demand
Others say greed
With the market choking on gas
And gas prices being low
They started shutting down wells
That can certainly drive prices up
Now throw the weather into the mix
Did we have a spring…
Maybe we will have a hot summer
The market is in flux
Should the long range forecast see a hot summer
Prices will continue to rise
If cooler temperatures prevail
You will start seeing prices back off
Should that be the case…
We will see a window of opportunity
For gas and electric prices will drop and
Become even more competitive
In the energy business
Timing is everything
We’ll keep you posted
Live Update
June 11, 2015
Good Afternoon…..
This is George Hutchinson….
Bringing you a live energy update
From our HBS studios
Located in a remote area of…
New Jersey
This Thursday afternoon
June 11th
The year 2015
Before we get into the current market conditions
Let’s take a minute to look
At some of the factors
That has led up to this point
It has been a crazy couple of months
Many people say…..
The energy market
Has developed a mind of it’s own
After starting out with a mild winter
We got hit with colder than normal temperatures
During the months of
February and March
This helped to push energy prices up
The gas nymex
Came close to hitting $3.00
It also had an adverse effect on Basis pricing
January 2016 basis
Was running over $7.00 a dekatherm
As cooler than expected spring temperatures hit
In April and May
We started seeing prices
Drop
Making the market
More attractive
You could hear the chatter starting ……
Maybe the summer was not going to be
That hot after all
Prices continued to drop
The door was opening
Was the bottom going to fall out
Record storage levels
Were being recorded
Then….
Sometime during
The end of last week…..
The weather gods
Started talking about
Temperatures going into the
High 80s…..
Possibly the low 90s this week
Immediately
The market corrected itself
Ohhhhh
Maybe it is going to get hot after all
Prices started to rise
Nymex jumps 10 points
Next day
Nymex jumps another 10 points
The market is up again
As I bring you this update
As I often say….
Timing is everything
But the old adage
Still rings true…..
What a difference a day makes
Stay tuned for further updates
Polar vortex: How will it affect your utility bill?
January 15, 2014
As reported in Christian Science Monitor
By David J. Unger, Staff writer / January 8, 2014
The polar vortex gripping the nation is as unpleasant for utilities and grid operators as it is for you. What does the polar vortex mean for your next utility bill?
What happens when much of the nation simultaneously reaches for the thermostat and turns up the heat? Energy prices rise.
With Americans shivering through a “polar vortex,” utilities and grid operators are scrambling to meet demand amid record low temperatures. A stressed power grid and constrained natural gas pipelines are already pushing up the price of electricity and natural gas on wholesale markets.
The good news is that consumers are relatively insulated from the polar vortex’s temporary price shocks (besides the obvious cost increase of turning the heat up for a prolonged period). The bad news is that if this is the first polar vortex of many to come, that prolonged grid strain and need for new infrastructure will almost certainly make its way into the bottom line of your monthly utility bill.
“Most retail customers are set up through regulated natural gas rates for this reason – so that short-term spikes in the spot price don’t automatically flow through,” says M. Tyson Brown, statistician at the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). “To the extent that this is a long-term trend – that really affects the price people pay.” Read the rest of this entry »
Yearly Electricity Auction Yields Mixed Results for NJ Consumers
February 8, 2013
As reported in NJ SpotLight By Tom Johnson, February 8, 2013 in Energy & Environment
The state yesterday announced the results of its annual electricity auction, a process used partly to determine utility bill prices, and the outcome was decidedly mixed in a market some thought would deliver more savings to consumers.
At a time when natural-gas prices are near historic lows, the auction yielded savings for residential and small commercial customers for three of New Jersey’s four electric utilities, with prices dropping by 3 percent to as much as 5.4 percent, effective June 1. It is the fourth year prices have dropped for residents and small businesses.
That’s the good news.
But for larger commercial and industrial customers, prices basically doubled for the electricity they will need, according to a consultant for the state Board of Utilities, which conducted the auction over the past few days. For both residents and larger customers, any increases apply only to the portion of the bill covering the cost of generating electricity, which accounts for about two-thirds of the cost paid by ratepayers.
The contrast in auction results reflects changes in the energy market since the state deregulated its electric monopolies in 1999, and explains partly why even with the steep drop in the fuel that sets the price for electricity, consumers in New Jersey still pay some of the highest energy bills in the nation.
Here’s why:
The BPU no longer controls the price of producing the electricity consumers get from suppliers; the federal government decides how much utilities will earn on transmission projects they undertake; and the PJM Interconnection, the regional operator of the nation’s largest power grid, regulates how much suppliers will earn for making sure the lights don’t go out. On top of all that, the state’s efforts to promote solar energy also are boosting costs, as the BPU conceded in a press release announcing the results of the auction.
The state blamed the surprising large increase for industrial customers on a rise in capacity payments to power suppliers, which ensure there is enough electricity in reserve to maintain reliability on the power grid. Those capacity payments jumped by 65 percent from the prior year, according to the BPU.
That was of little comfort to business lobbyists.
“That’s an awful large increase,’’ said Hal Bozarth, executive director of the Chemistry Industry Council of New Jersey. “It’s a clear signal to me the auction system is broken in many places.’’
The vast majority of industrial and commercial customers, however, have contracts with so-called third-party suppliers, which are not affected by the jump in prices in the most recent auction, BPU officials noted.
The doubling of prices to industrial customers only applies to the relatively few establishments that have not switched from their incumbent utility.
“It’s disturbing,’’ said Stefanie Brand, director of the New Jersey Division of Rate Counsel. “It’s definitely going to have an impact on them.’’
Other factors contributed to the mixed results in the most recent auction.
For Public Service Electric & Gas, the state’s largest utility with more than 2 million customers, more than the three other utilities combined—prices for residential and small-business customers were essentially flat.
Its customers will see their monthly bills rise by 6 cents a month, an increase largely attributed to the billions of dollars the company is investing in new transmission projects ordered by the regional grid operator and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Those projects could lower electric bills in the long run by easing congestion on the power grid, which spikes electricity costs, and bringing more power into the capacity into the state, according to PSE&G spokeswoman Karen Johnson.
The state, however, has contested many of the incentives handed out by FERC, which has rewarded PSE&G with much higher rates of return on a handful of transmission projects, much more than the utility receives for maintaining its distribution lines, which deliver power from substations to homes and businesses.
“We’re not saying we don’t need transmission,’’ Brand said. “But they can earn a fair return on them without earning excessive returns.’’
The price of electricity per kilowatt hour for PSE&G customers in this year’s auction was 9.218 cents per kilowatt hour, almost a penny more than the prior year, Brand said. “Some of these numbers are moving in the wrong direction,’’ she said.
The state is also trying to address the rising costs of capacity payments by giving subsidies to new power-plant developers, a controversial strategy under attack from both incumbent power suppliers and the PJM.
Nonetheless, three new power plants, one without any state subsidies, are due to begin supplying power in 2015 — too late, however, to drive down costs for this year and next.
Citing the increase in capacity costs, Brand said the auction results show “graphically when efforts have been made to increase investment in new generation and why residents will benefit from it.’’
BPU President Bob Hanna, in a conference call with reporters to discuss the auction results, said it is very hard to predict what is going to happen with natural-gas prices, the main driver in setting electricity prices.
“For now, I see a period of stability,’’ he said.
And for now, some consumers will see a drop in bills. According to the BPU, customers of Atlantic City Electric will see their monthly bills drop by 5.4 percent, or $6.42 cents a month; for Jersey Central Power & Light customers, there will be a decline of 3 percent, or $2.91 per month; and Rockland Electric customers will see their bills dip 5.3 percent, or $6.74 monthly.
For more information call 856-857-1230 or email george@hbsadvantage.com
Hutchinson Business Solutions………Smart Solutions for Smart Business
Chance of Snow
February 6, 2013
Seems like this is the one phrase
We have been hearing a lot
Lately
Here it is the beginning of February
And we have had no…
Major accumulations
I love hearing the
Projected winter snowcast
They give back in October
By our calculations
We see several cold fronts
Moving thru
Over the next couple of months
With these cold fronts…..
We see several major storms
Being caused by the El Nino
Now sitting
In the Pacific Waters
Total projected accumulation
During the next couple of months
Will be….
Drumroll please…
From 25 to 35 inches
A few years ago
We almost hit the
25 inch mark…
The week after Thanksgiving
In fact we had 3 major storms…
Bringing over 50 inches of snow
By New Years
I wonder what they said that year?
This year
Ho Hum…
Where is the snow?
I feel sorry for all the people
Who ran out and bought
Brand new snow gear
Seems to be just….
Taking up space
Remember when we used
To go out
And buy snow tires?
Whatever happened…
To snow tires….
Or did you used to put….
Chains on your tires?
Meanwhile…
It seems the cold
Has finally
Settled in
The deregulated energy market
Has remained…
Fairly stable
There are still
Great opportunities
For savings
In the natural gas
And electric markets
If you have been hesitant
To look at these deregulated opportunities
This is a good time to….
Dip your toe in the water
You will like what you see
I wish I could say the same
For the gasoline market
The price of gasoline
Has jumped over 30 cents…
Just in the last few weeks
People are no longer saying…
Fill it up
With regular
It’s back to….
Can I have $20 of regular
There is speculation
That gas prices may even
Make the push
To the dreaded…
$4.00 per gallon mark
Over the next month or so
That will make for a
Long summer….
Driving
Back and forth
To the shore
How many times
Will we have to stop for gas
If we keep getting…
$20 refills
Supply and demand
They have the supply
And we demand…
Lower prices
Will we ever see gas….
Under $3.00 again
Here’s hoping
We are doing our best
In the deregulated energy market
Saving our clients’
Thousands of $$$$$
Does anybody
Know someone…
In the refinery business…
We could all use some
Savings on the road
For more insight contact george@hbsadvantage.com
Smart Solutions for Smart Business
Annual Electric Auction Helps Determine Rates for NJ Utilities
January 31, 2013
Low prices for natural gas used to fuel power plants may help keep down rates.
By Tom Johnson, January 31, 2013 in Energy & Environment as reported in NJ Spotlight
For the past four years, consumers and many businesses in New Jersey have enjoyed a rare occurrence — a drop in the price of the electricity delivered to their homes from power plants around the region.
Might the trend continue? More will be known by the end of next week when the state Board of Public Utilities holds its annual online auction to purchase most of the electricity needed to power millions of New Jersey homes and businesses.
The results of the annual auction play a big role in determining whether electricity prices fall or rise each June in a state saddled with some of the highest energy costs in the nation.
But in the increasingly complex energy market, the auction is not the only factor: Transmission prices continue to rise and the state has increased the amount of electricity that power suppliers are required to buy from solar-energy systems, which costs more than electricity produced from more conventional power sources. Those and other factors can wipe out any savings achieved in the auction.
The auction typically involves the expenditure of more than $7 billion in ratepayer funds, although that amount may drop given the number of customers who have switched in the last year.
For the most part, state officials and industry executives were reluctant to predict the outcome of this year’s auction, but the general consensus was there should not be a drastic change in consumer prices, given the continued relatively low cost of natural gas.
‘’I don’t think there will be any major swings,’’ said Jay Kooper, the New Jersey chairman of the Retail Energy Suppliers Association, a group representing power suppliers who try to offer customers cheaper electricity than that supplied by the state’s four electric utilities.
With the steep drop in natural-gas prices, Kooper’s members have been much more successful in luring customers away from the state’s utilities, which buy the power they need to supply their customers in bulk in the annual auction held by the BPU. The cost of generating that electricity generally amounts to about two-thirds of a customer’s bill, with most of the rest of the cost tied to the expense of delivering the power over a utility’s transmission and distribution lines.
Natural-gas prices are still historically low, but they have bumped up a bit since last year, according to Tancred Lidderdale, a senior analyst at the Energy Information Administration, an arm of the U.S. Energy Department.
“Natural gas prices are still low, but they are not as low as last year,’’ Lidderdale said, noting that the price of the fuel, which is largely used to power generating stations in the region, was about $2.40 last January in one sector; prices were running at about $3.29 in future contracts in the same sector this month.
The price differential should not have a big impact on the New Jersey auction because of the way state regulators have structured it. Last year, prices for electricity purchased from the power suppliers fell from 1.1 percent to as much as 6.4 percent, depending upon the utility supplying the electricity.
Critics, however, said the price drops could have been steeper if the state’s utilities were not locked into the present system of buying electricity. Under that system, the utilities buy one-third of the power they need for customers each February. By doing so, they avoid the possibility of their customers be hit with huge price spikes when natural-gas costs rise rapidly, as happened during Hurricane Katrina.
The downside is that when natural-gas prices fall, customers do not gain the savings very quickly from their utilities, which has prompted more and more customers to shop around for cheaper energy rates. By the end of December, about 15 percent of more than 3 million residential customers had switched electricity suppliers, way up from the 5 percent who had switched in February.
New Jersey Division of Rate Counsel Director Stefanie Brand, who has argued for changes in the current auction structure, said the lower natural-gas prices may offset other factors driving up costs for consumers.
“Hopefully, it will be good news for consumers,’’ Brand said in a telephone interview. “I would love to see prices go down, but I can’t say I know what’s going to happen.’’
Hal Bozarth, director of the Chemistry Industry Council of New Jersey and a frequent critic of the state’s energy policies, said he would expect prices to go down, given the low natural-gas prices. “I’d be sadly disappointed to see prices go higher,’’ he said. “The rates are so high they are a disincentive for economic development.’’
In New Jersey, energy costs for the industrial sector usually rate as sixth- or seventh-highest in the country, about 60 percent higher than the national average, according to Bozarth.
Kooper, who said the state’s system of buying power needs some structural changes, remained hopeful. “I think there will be opportunities to shop for electricity,’’ he said.
The Rumbling Started………
January 7, 2013
Back in September
Right after Labor Day
Future forecast show
We are in for……
A cold winter
Thus began the long trudge….
Natural gas prices
Started inching up
In October
The drumbeats started
Beating louder
Forecasts are calling
For a cold winter
Natural gas prices
Inched up
A bit higher
All this was happening
As Natural gas storage levels
Remain at….
An all-time high
Future supplies are poised
To make the US
The world’s largest
Natural gas supplier
New finds and
Refined extraction methods show
We have over 100 years
Of natural gas reserves
November starts….
The drums keep beating
Forecast show that it is
Going to be
A cold winter
Prices inch up a bit higher
All the while
We have been experiencing
Higher than normal temperatures
Here it is January 2013
We have had some cold weather
But no long term stretches
Of cold weather
They are already forecasting
That beginning next week…..
A warm front will be coming in
And hanging for a couple of weeks
All this has created a
Natural gas market
Phenomena
The index
(The base cost of natural gas
To all providers)
Started to drop
So much for the higher prices
HBS has been working with our clients
Keeping them apprised of the opportunity
For the savings this presents
The basis (transportation cost)
Is inverted
That means the longer you go out
The less expensive it is
We have never seen this
In the 12 years we have been
Servicing the deregulated market
By locking in a
3 to 4 year
Basis position
Clients have been able
To add more certainty
To their future
Natural gas cost
This will allow the client to
Concentrate on managing the cost
Of the Nymex
ie: (gas out of the ground)
During the highest usage months
November thru March
For most clients
That is when 75% of their
Annual natural gas usage
Is consumed
Feel free to contact us…..
To learn more about
How you are able
To save in the deregulated
Natural Gas and Electric markets
Start the New Year off with Savings
That will always bring a
Smile to your face….
Hutchinson Business Solutions
Smart Solutions for Smart Business
For more insight contact george@hbsadvantage.com
Visit us on the web http://www.hutchinsonbusinesssolutions.com
Overview of electric deregulation in NJ
April 28, 2012
As reported by Save on Energy.com
New Jersey
Electric:
New Jersey opened its electricity industry to competition in 1999. Each of the four electric utilities (PSE&G, Jersey Central Power & Light, Atlantic City Electric and Rockland Electric) now offer customers the chance to save money by shopping for the supply portion of their electric bill.
The utilities sold off their power plants, and now only own the transmission and distribution wires, while also providing “backstop” power to customers who do not shop for electricity. With the move to competition, New Jersey utilities have separated their service into two parts:
• Regulated distribution of power, which is still only provided by the utility, and • Supply of the electric commodity, which is open to competition.
Customers can choose to receive their electric supply from their utility, or an alternate energy provider.
Customers who do not choose an alternative energy provider are served on each utility’s Basic Generation Service (BGS). The price for Basic Generation Service is determined annually through auctions held by the utilities.
For large customers above 750 kW, called the Commercial and Industrial Energy Pricing or CIEP class, the BGS price is set at hourly prices in the wholesale PJM market. These prices can be extremely volatile, so most large customers choose an alternate (or third-party) energy provider for price stability.
Customers under 750 kW are known as the BGS Fixed Pricing Class, and receive a flat, annual rate from the auction, although it may be seasonally adjusted.
Customers who choose an alternate energy provider still have their power delivered to them by their local utility, and contact their utility for all outage reporting. Customers can choose to receive either a single bill from their utility for their delivery service and energy supply service, or can receive two bills, one from each company.
Our Perspective:
Natural gas prices are near a 10 year low. Because 30% of electricity is generated with natural gas we have seen very competitive in this area also.
Deregulation gives the consumer a choice to buy their energy supply on the open market at wholesale prices as oppose to buying energy from the local provider at default prices that are normally higher. If you are not currently buying energy thru a 3rd party provider, it is something you should take the time to look at. Businesses and now residential clients are finding substantial savings by fixing the cost of their electric and natural gas supply cost.
To learn more email george@hbsadvantage.com
Your Attention………Please
April 24, 2012
Residential electric customers
In…
New Jersey and Pennsylvania….
You finally have an opportunity
To lock your electric supply cost
At a fixed price…….
For a
12 month period
This means saving of
Around 15%
Off your current
Local provider supply cost
If you look at your PSEG residential electric bill
You will see your…..
Price to compare
For electric
Is around
$.116 cents per kwh
Atlantic City Electric customers
Your bill shows a
Price to compare of around
$.122 cents per kwh
We now have a program that will permit
Residential customers in New Jersey
To lock their electric supply cost for
$.0999 cents per kwh
For a 12 month period
For a typical household
This provides savings
Of over $300 a year
No additional cost
No transfer fees
No interruption of service
The supply charges will be billed on
Your current local provider bill
Best yet…..
Nothing changes…….
Should you have an electrical problem…..
You still will call your local provider
To service the account
This opportunity is also available for….
All Residential Pennsylvania
Electric customers
(Contact us to find out your rate…….
Your savings are comparable)
As most of you know…
HBS has been in the deregulated energy business
Since January 2000
We have been providing
This service…
For only the commercial market
I get several calls
Every week
From my clients
Asking……
Can you help me with my home electric bill……
Many have faxed or emailed me…….
All the special offers they have been receiving
Problem was……
All I found was……
Smoke and Mirrors
They had the sizzle….
No contract…..
Month to month……
Low variable rate……..
They also had……..
Minimal to no $avings
Many have complained to me
They actually paid more
Than the provider price to compare
For the first time
We have found
A Residential opportunity
That will provide….
True savings….
For your…..
Residential Electric Account
Should you like to know more…..
About this saving opportunity
For your home
Email……..
Or call our office 856-857-1230
$300 savings
For me…..
It was the equivalent
Of getting 1 month
Free electric a year
Visit our website: www.hutchinsonbusinesssolutions.com to learn more about opportunities available to provide savings.
As reported By Christopher Martin Bloomberg News 3/21/12
NEW YORK – U.S. solar developers are luring cash at record rates from investors ranging from Warren Buffett to Google and KKR by offering returns on projects four times those available for Treasury securities.
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., together with the biggest Internet search company, private equity companies, and insurers MetLife Inc. and John Hancock Life Insurance Co., poured more than $500 million into renewable energy in the last year. That’s the most ever for companies outside the club of banks and specialist lenders that traditionally back solar energy, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance data.
Once so risky that only government backing could draw private capital, solar projects now are making returns of about 15 percent, according to Stanford University’s Center for Energy Policy and Finance. That has attracted a wider community of investors eager to cash in on earnings stronger than those for infrastructure projects such as toll roads and pipelines. “A solar power project with a long-term sales agreement could be viewed as a machine that generates revenue,” said Marty Klepper, an attorney at Skadden Arps Slate Meagher & Flom, which helped arrange a solar deal for Buffett. “It’s an attractive investment for any firm, not just those in energy.”
With 30-year Treasuries yielding about 3.4 percent, investors are seeking safe places to park their money for years at a higher return. Solar energy fits the bill, with predictable cash flows guaranteed by contract for two decades or more. Those deals may be even more lucrative because many were signed before the cost of solar panels plunged 50 percent last year.
Buffett’s MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. agreed to buy the Topaz Solar Farm in California from First Solar Inc. on Dec. 7. The project’s development budget is estimated at $2.4 billion and it may generate a 16.3 percent return on investment by selling power to PG&E Corp. at about $150 a megawatt-hour through a 25-year contract, according to New Energy Finance calculations. It will have 550 megawatts of capacity and is expected to go into operation in 2015, making it one of the world’s biggest photovoltaic plants.
“After tax, you’re looking at returns in the 10 percent to 15 percent range” for solar projects, said Dan Reicher, executive director of the Stanford center. “The beauty of solar is, once you make the capital investment, you’ve got free fuel and very low operating costs.”
The long-term nature of solar power purchase deals makes them similar to some bonds. And because a solar farm is a tangible asset, these investments also function much like those for infrastructure projects, with cash flows comparable to toll roads, bridges and pipelines, said Stefan Heck, a director at McKinsey & Co. in New York who leads the firm’s clean-tech work. Once a project starts producing power, investors can earn a return that’s “higher than most bonds,” he said. “There are a lot of pension funds with long-term horizons that are very interested in this space.”
Governments remain the biggest backers of the solar industry; President Obama’s administration suffered criticism for investing in Solyndra, a solar manufacturer that went bankrupt last year. Worldwide, the U.S. Treasury’s Federal Financing Bank was the biggest asset-finance lender for renewable energy companies in the past year, arranging 12 deals worth $11.2 billion, according to New Energy Finance. The Brazilian development bank BNDES, Bank of America, and Banco Santander followed.
In 2009, solar technology was so unfamiliar that few banks would back projects that required billions in upfront investment and wouldn’t begin producing revenue for years, Klepper said. The biggest financiers for the industry that year were Madrid- based Santander, HSH Nordbank of Hamburg and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria of Bilbao, Spain, New Energy Finance said.
That year, the Energy Department began funding a program to guarantee loans for solar farms and other renewable energy projects that supported almost $35 billion in financing before winding down in September. The government’s endorsement assuaged investors’ concerns and built up a bigger community of people who understand how to make money from solar deals, said Arno Harris, chief executive officer of Sharp Corp.’s renewable power development unit Recurrent Energy.
“Solar is now bankable,” Harris said. “When solar was perceived as more risky, it required a premium,” and now it’s “becoming part of a much broader capital market.”
Long-term power-purchase contracts are the key to making solar a reliable investment, Harris said. Utilities in sunny states such as California, Arizona, and Nevada have agreed to pay premiums for electricity generated by sunshine.
Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/business/homepage/20120321_Solar_returns_beat_Treasuries__drawing_investors_from_Buffett_to_Google.html#ixzz1plWe9SD0
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