Gas It Up

June 30, 2016

The past 3 months

Natural gas prices have been on the rise

After establishing a new floor

With the Nymex dropping under $2.00 a dekatherm

It started an accent

And is now heading towards $3.00

That would be a 50% increase

What caused this sudden rise….

Some say…..

Supply / Demand

Others say greed

With the market choking on gas

And gas prices being low

They started shutting down wells

That can certainly drive prices up

Now throw the weather into the mix

Did we have a spring…

Maybe we will have a hot summer

The market is in flux

Should the long range forecast see a hot summer

Prices will continue to rise

If cooler temperatures prevail

You will start seeing prices back off

Should that be the case…

We will see a window of opportunity

For gas and electric prices will drop and

Become even more competitive

In the energy business

Timing is everything

We’ll keep you posted

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Where’s the Floor

February 9, 2015

Natural gas is a commodity

That is traded on the nymex

When people say…

Natural gas is up 5 cents

Or

Natural gas is down 5 cents

They are talking about

The price of natural gas

Out of the ground

Which is traded

On the nymex…

If you flash back

5 to 6 years ago

You will probably remember

Natural gas prices were

Thru the roof

Trading around

$13 – $15 a dekatherm

Slowly

Over time

The market began to drop

It hit the floor

In May 2012

When the nymex

Hit $2 a decathem

(Nobody knows where the floor is

Until you pass it)

Since May 2012

We have been on a roller coaster

The nymex climbed up

To over $5.50

In Feb 2014

Then….

It began a slow descent

As of today

The nymex is

Trading at $2.59 a dekatherm

The point I am trying to make is….

The nymex is once again

Hovering

Just above the floor

It hit in May 2012

This is good news for

Those buying

Natural Gas and Electric

In the deregulated market

With the winter winding down

And with a glut of gas

In reserves

Prices are very competitive

This is a great time

To save

$$$$Money$$$$

Will gas go below the $2 a dekatherm

I wish I had a crystal ball

In a market

Where timing is everything…..

Now is a good time to be

Locking in future savings

Natural Gas Prices Drop

December 12, 2014

It looks like the natural gas market

Has shaken off the fears

Of having a cold winter

Once again this year

After beating the drums

For 11 months

Driving up market prices

Now

That winter is here

The market sees no fear

And has been in free fall

Not to say

That things could change

Remember we are dealing

With the fickle energy market

We have heard many times

Timing is everything

Well you can’t say

I didn’t tell you

If you are currently

With the local provider

Or

You are floating with a 3rd party provider

Now’s the time to lock in on savings

Market prices are well below

What you would be paying

For those businesses

Who use gas

To heat their buildings

Statistics show

You use about 60% to 70%

Of your annual natural gas usage

Between the months

November and March

To heat your building

One cold snap

Can push prices thru the roof

It is smart to protect yourselves

During these high usage months

By locking into a competitive

Fixed rate contract

Give us a call

Or shoot us an email

We are here

To help you save money

As reported in Wall Street Journal

By
Tim Puko

A repeat of last year’s snowy, Arctic-cold winter is looking a little more likely today. Natural gas traders, still scarred by the memory, are bunkering in.

Buyers have been rushing into the gas market for a week on fears of a sequel to last winter’s Polar Vortex, which walloped the eastern half of the U.S. with brutally cold temperatures from the deep south up to New England. Many spent months dismissing that possibility as simple panic, but now meteorologists are getting more pessimistic.

Both Commodity Weather Group and WeatherBELL Analytics LLC released long-term forecasts this week showing a notably higher risk for a cold December. That was supposed to be relatively mild month this winter, balancing out a cold January and February. Now the whole winter is shaping up to be “pretty nasty,” WeatherBELL said.

That has propelled natural gas to a six-session rally. It’s rebounded nearly 18% since it hit its 2014 low last week. Gains of nearly 3% Tuesday are pushing it near a three-month high.

And traders are all wondering if the winter of 2015 will bring a repeat of 2014.

“I think it’s a reasonable risk,” said Matt Rogers president and meteorologist at Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Md. An early season burst of cold starting next week is already “really spooking a lot of people.”

More than half of all U.S. homes use natural gas as their heating fuel, making the natural gas market especially vulnerable to weather. Tepid demand had capped the market for four months and had bankers and investors fearing a glut by the spring. The new forecasts have flipped that script, at least temporarily.

Timothy J. Collins, director at Fairfield Advisors LLC in Madison, N.J., has had to get out of spread bets that depended on falling prices in January, he said. He is now trying to buy into positions that would benefit from rising prices that month, but he still thinks that record production will help balance out the fear of a Polar Vortex repeat, he said.

“I think people are overly sensitive to it,” said Mr. Collins, whose fund manages $35 million. “You know how they say the military is always trying to fight the last war? Well, we keep trading the last position.”

The rally could produce bargains for stock investors, said Jonathan Waghorn, co-portfolio manager at Guinness Atkinson Asset Management Inc. in London. Its $84-million fund holds Chesapeake Energy Corp., QEP Resources Inc. and Ultra Petroleum Corp, among other oil and gas producers that could benefit from rising gas prices balancing out free-falling oil prices.

“Gas is strong, yet the energy equities names are all getting hit,” Mr. Waghorn said. “If you believe the gas story, today’s giving you a good opportunity to pick up some energy names getting smashed by weak oil.”

As reported in Wall Street Journal

By
Timothy Puko

July 28, 2014 3:09 p.m. ET

NEW YORK—Natural-gas prices set a new eight-month low for the fourth time in six sessions, breaking an early-day run Monday as traders stayed focused on low prospects for demand.

Prices for the front-month August contract settled down 3.4 cents, or 0.9%, to $3.747 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. August options expired Monday and the contract expires Tuesday. The more actively traded September contract settled down 2.2 cents, or 0.6%, to $3.765/mmBtu.

The day largely focused on technical trading as buyers and sellers kept moving against the momentum of the market, analysts said. After prices quickly hit an intraday high of $3.85/mmBtu, traders began to sell, likely focused on how cool weather is likely to limit demand in the weeks to come, said Aaron Calder, senior market analyst at energy-consulting firm Gelber & Associates in Houston.

The unseasonably cool summer has allowed consumers to use less air conditioning and the gas-fired electricity that fuels it. Producers put a record string of surpluses into storage, and gas prices have fallen about 20% since mid-June.

“If the weather stays mild and we don’t have any power demand, as it has been, then I don’t think we’ve hit a bottom,” Mr. Calder said.

Forecasts still show mild weather, including temperatures as much as eight degrees Fahrenheit below normal, lingering over the center of the country into the second week of August. Weather forecasts made only small changes over the weekend, with division over whether temperatures would be slightly warmer or cooler than previously expected.

The New Normal

April 29, 2013

Since May of 2012

When the natural gas

Nymex (gas out of the ground)

Hit the floor at just under $2.04 a dth

We have seen the nymex

More than double!!!!!

Today the nymex is at $4.16 a dth

All this talk about……

Overflowing gas supplies

Storage levels being at a

5 year high

Has not dampened the market

I have had many conversations

With people in the energy industry

There is an….

Across the board agreement

That there is little substantiation

For this increase in pricing

Will prices go back down?

Hard to say…..

I do not see it dropping

To where prices were last May

Is having over a $4.00 nymex

The new normal

Stay tuned

For more insight contact george@hbsadvantage.com or call 856-857-1230

Visit us on the web http://www.hutchinsonbusinesssolutions.com

Back in September

Right after Labor Day

Future forecast show

We are in for……

A cold winter

Thus began the long trudge….

Natural gas prices

Started inching up

In October

The drumbeats started

Beating louder

Forecasts are calling

For a cold winter

Natural gas prices

Inched up

A bit higher

All this was happening

As Natural gas storage levels

Remain at….

An all-time high

Future supplies are poised

To make the US

The world’s largest

Natural gas supplier

New finds and

Refined extraction methods show

We have over 100 years

Of natural gas reserves

November starts….

The drums keep beating

Forecast show that it is

Going to be

A cold winter

Prices inch up a bit higher

All the while

We have been experiencing

Higher than normal temperatures

Here it is January 2013

We have had some cold weather

But no long term stretches

Of cold weather

They are already forecasting

That beginning next week…..

A warm front will be coming in

And hanging for a couple of weeks

All this has created a

Natural gas market

Phenomena

The index

(The base cost of natural gas

To all providers)

Started to drop

So much for the higher prices

HBS has been working with our clients

Keeping them apprised of the opportunity

For the savings this presents

The basis (transportation cost)

Is inverted

That means the longer you go out

The less expensive it is

We have never seen this

In the 12 years we have been

Servicing the deregulated market

By locking in a

3 to 4 year

Basis position

Clients have been able

To add more certainty

To their future

Natural gas cost

This will allow the client to

Concentrate on managing the cost

Of the Nymex

ie: (gas out of the ground)

During the highest usage months

November thru March

For most clients

That is when 75% of their

Annual natural gas usage

Is consumed

Feel free to contact us…..

To learn more about

How you are able

To save in the deregulated

Natural Gas and Electric markets

Start the New Year off with Savings

That will always bring a

Smile to your face….

Hutchinson Business Solutions

Smart Solutions for Smart Business

For more insight contact george@hbsadvantage.com

Visit us on the web http://www.hutchinsonbusinesssolutions.com

Inching Up

June 1, 2012

While everyone has been keeping

 

Their eyes on gas pump prices

 

 

The big question

 

 

Will it go over $4.00 this summer?

 

 

 

Natural gas has been making its own mark

 

 

 

After nymex prices

 

 

Hit a 10 year low

 

 

In late April

 

 

 

We have seen the Nymex prices

 

Run up

 

 

 

Over 25%

 

 

During the last 30 days

 

 

 

You may have heard me say before….

 

 

 

You don’t know where the floor is

 

Until you passed it

 

 

 

We watched a slow steady fall of the nymex

 

Over a long period of time

 

 

Once it got to a point

 

Where investors may have thought

 

 

It may be…..

 

 

Too low

 

 

 

It shot up

 

 

 

 

Was it a market correction?

 

 

 

Analyst start talking about possibilities

 

Of having a hot summer

 

 

 

That will increase demand…

 

 

 

 

For 30% of the electric is generated

 

From natural gas.

 

 

 

Prices inch up

 

 

 

 

They also start looking at

 

Hurricane reports

 

 

 

 

That could affect the wells

 

In the Gulf of Mexico

 

 

 

Prices inch up more

 

 

 

 

They have even started to cap

 

Some of the natural gas wells

 

 

 

Hmmm

 

 

Supply / Demand

 

 

 

Cut down on the supply

 

 

That will get the

 

 

 

 

Prices to inch up

 

 

 

 

Higher

 

 

 

 

Market prices are still very competitive

 

 

 

It just that…..

 

 

In this market

 

 

 

Timing is everything

 

 

 

 

Natural gas and electric prices

 

 

Are still very competitive

 

 

 

If you have not participated in deregulation

 

Now is the time…

 

 

To lock in on the savings

 

 

 

Under contract

 

 

 

Now is the time to start looking

 

To lock in your renewals

 

 

 

 

To all HBS customers

 

 

Please take my phone call

 

 

 

 

To learn more contact

 

 

george@hbsadvantage.com

 

Visit us on the web www.hutchinsonbusinesssolutions.com

By SANDY SHORE, AP Business Writer–8 hours ago

Battered natural gas prices are getting a bit of a break as cooler spring weather raises expectations that demand may improve.

Natural gas rose 6 cents to finish at $2.186 per 1,000 cubic feet in Friday trading. That’s up nearly 15 percent from April 19 when the price hit the lowest level in more than a decade at $1.907 per 1,000 cubic feet.

The price has plunged this year as a natural gas production boom created a glut of supply and demand dropped during a mild winter.

Now, some in the market are suggesting demand will strengthen, which help boost prices.

Cooler weather moving across the Northeast, parts of the Midwest and the Rockies this weekend could prompt homeowners to turn up the heat, creating more need for natural gas.

In addition, utilities have been substituting cheaper natural gas for coal to generate electricity. As much as six billion cubic feet a day of natural gas has replaced coal-fired power generation this year, said Ron Denhardt, an analyst with Strategic Energy & Economic Research. Consumption on an annual basis is about 66 billion to 67 billion cubic feet a day.

In addition, some energy companies have cut production because low prices can make it unprofitable to drill for some types of natural gas.

Yet, several analysts believe any rally will be short-lived.

With May upon us, any pick-up in demand for heating will be brief. About 70 percent of the nation’s demand for natural gas comes during the winter to heat homes and businesses.

Natural gas inventories continue to build. Analysts say that underground storage could be filled to the brim by fall without additional production cuts or an extremely hot summer that boosts electricity demand for cooling.

“It’s fundamentally a disastrous market,” Denhardt said. “I can’t see any turnaround of any significance before November, December of this year.”

PFGBest analyst Phil Flynn said there has to be an even bigger drop in price to force companies to cut more production. He speculated that the price will test an all-time low of $1.35 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In other energy trading, oil prices rose slightly, as traders shrugged off a report that the economy grew more slowly in the first three months of the year as governments spent less and businesses cut back on investment. But consumers spent at the fastest pace in more than a year. The Commerce Department said Friday that the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the January-March quarter, compared with 3 percent in the final quarter of 2011.

Benchmark oil rose 38 cents to end at $104.93 per barrel in New York. Brent crude fell 9 cents to finish at $119.83 per barrel in London. Heating oil lost 1.37 cents to end at $3.1807 per gallon and gasoline futures rose 2.29 cents to finish at $3.2062 per gallon.

At the pump, gasoline prices were little changed at a national average of $3.826 per gallon, according to AAA, Wright Express and the Oil Price Information Service. That’s 8.5 cents less than a month ago and 5.3 cents lower than a year ago.

Bankrate.comBy Chris Persaud | Bankrate.com – Fri, Mar 23, 2012 3:01 AM EDT

 

$4 gas prices got your attention? If the cost of gasoline is already back at that lofty level where you are, or is simply headed in that direction, you’re probably asking where all the gas money you’re shelling out at the pump is going.

There are a couple of ways of answering that.
Industry shows how gas price breaks down

The American Petroleum Institute, or API, has a general breakdown for you. According to the trade group’s February estimates, most of what you pay for gasoline — 71 percent — goes to refineries, to buy oil.

API says it takes one gallon of oil to make a gallon of gasoline. The price of oil is determined in commodities markets, where companies and traders buy and sell the petroleum for purposes that can include refining it into gasoline or holding it as an investment. The markets, and the prices they set, are influenced by supply-and-demand factors, such as trouble in the Middle East that could result in less oil coming from that region of the world.

After oil prices, the rest of the price of a gallon of gas comes from taxes (14 percent) and costs associated with refining, moving and selling the gasoline (15 percent), according to API.

At the time of API’s most recent study, in late February, the national average price of regular-grade gasoline was $3.58 per gallon. By the group’s estimates and percentages, about $2.54 of that price covered crude oil costs, 50 cents went to taxes, and about 54 cents went into refining, moving and retailing.
Get geeky for more exact gas cost analysis

If you want to get geekier about where your gas money is going, you can do a more exact and up-to-date calculation on your own.

Here’s how:

  • Find the price of a gallon of gas. Go online to AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report. For example, as of March 22, the auto club showed that a gallon of regular gasoline sold for about $3.88.
  • Find the price of a gallon of oil. Head to Bloomberg.com’s Energy & Oil Prices page. As of March 22, it showed a barrel of oil selling for about $105.46. There are 42 gallons in a barrel of oil, so divide $105.46 by 42 to get $2.51 as the price of one gallon of oil. Again, a gallon of oil can be refined into one gallon of gasoline, according to API. So, about $2.51 of the March 22 price for a gallon of gas went toward the cost of the underlying oil. That works out to about 65 percent of what you paid at the pump.
  • Find the cost of taxes. The federal tax on gasoline is 18.4 cents per gallon. On top of that, there are state taxes and, depending on where you live, local gasoline and/or sales taxes, too. If taxes are typical where you are, the API estimates you’re paying 49 cents per gallon in federal, state and local gas taxes, making up 12.5 percent of the average $3.88 gas price.
  • Determine the cost of refining, transportation and retailing. The rest of the cost of gasoline goes to turning crude oil into fuel, moving it to gas stations and retail markup. Get this number by subtracting the amounts in steps 2 and 3 from the average price in step 1. In this case, that’s $3.88 minus $2.51 and minus 49 cents, which comes out to 88 cents for refining, transportation and retailing — or about 22.5 percent.

And that’s how you do the math. Keep in mind that taxes and other factors making up gas prices can differ by region, state, metro area and city. Check out our map on gasoline taxes by state to see how much of your gas money is going to federal and state taxes.

If you want more detail about your own local taxes, contact your city, county, and/or state department of revenue, department of finances, or the equivalent.