Turning Tables

Several weeks ago

I spoke about the projected

Increase of gasoline prices

Over the upcoming months

Experts were predicting the price

Of gasoline could reach…

The dreaded $4.00 a gallon mark

Before the summer hit

At the same time….

We were seeing

Natural gas prices

Continuing to fall….

The thought was….

That the Nymex (gas out of the ground)

May be heading…..

Back under $3.00 a decatherm

Well……..

The experts were wrong

The price of gasoline in NJ

Has been dropping

Over the past few weeks

Today I saw it listed for

$3.379 a gallon

(Don’t forget that last 9

You are not paying $3.38 a gallon)

Gasoline prices are….

Down about 25 cents

Do you think we can head into the low 3s?

Possibly sneak under $3.00 a gallon

With summer insight…

That could be a stretch…

Think of all those cars

Heading for the shore

Stay tuned…….

Natural gas prices

On the other hand…

Have jumped

Over the past 3 weeks

Near the end of February

The Nymex was around

$3.15 a decatherm

The talk was….

That the Nymex

Could be heading under $3.00 a decatherm

Surprise….Surprise….Surprise

With little or no warning

The nymex took off running

As of this writing

It is $3.965 a decatherm

Poised to break the $4.00 mark?

That is a 25% jump…

In less than a month

There is little or no support

To this Meteoric rise

Yeah, we had some cold weather

After all, it is winter

December and January

Were fairly mild

It did get cold in

February and March but…

The overall winter

Has not been that cold

Spring started yesterday

That tells me the weather will be….

Getting warmer

With warmer weather

The demand will drop

They are still dealing with

Abundant supplies

The nymex should settle down

And start dropping again

Don’t change the channel

We will keep you updated

With any breaking news

For more information contact us

george@hbsadvantage.com

Smart Solutions for Smart Business

Brrrr!

If you are heading out

In the next couple of days

You will see that winter…

Has finally come to visit us

The Highs are expected…..

In the low 20s

Adding the wind chill factor…

You will feel like it is…

In the single digits

Be sure to grab your scarf and gloves

And

Don’t forget to put a hat on…

It is said that….

You lose 90%

Of your body heat…

Thru your head

I thought that fact was recently….

Proven to be false?

A scientist did a study and found

There are no facts to support it

I said put a hat on…

Don’t you know there is a…..

Flu Epidemic going on

Do you want to listen to someone…

Experimenting on heat loss

Thru the head

Or

Be sick in bed for a week

I also heard…

There was a cold snap….

In California recently…

I saw student athletes

Having to wear sweat pants and gloves

To soccer practice

Because it was 55 degrees out

Can you image that?

Poor kids……

With all this cold weather rushing upon us

I checked to see how

The deregulated energy market

Has reacted

It has been relatively…

Unfazed

Yea it’s cold….

But there has been no extended

Cold temperatures

The deregulated

Natural Gas and Electric

Market prices..

Although not at the floor…

Have only risen slightly

And are still near….

A 10 year low

Starting off the New Year

Looking for savings

You will definitely find it….

In the…..

Deregulated Energy Market

Give us a call to find out more

And don’t forget…

To put a hat on

Smart Solutions for Smart Business

For more insight email george@hbsadvantage.com

Visit us on the web http://www.hutchinsonbusinesssolutions.com

The Dilemma

Natural Gas prices continue to be very competitive.

 

However…

 

This has presented a dilemma.

 

 

 

When you request pricing for an existing client,

 

Who has been participating in the deregulated market…

 

 

And

 

 

You compare the proposed price

 

vs

 

What the client has paid over the past 12 months.

 

 

Guess what???

 

 

 

The price normally is higher than what they have paid.

 

 

 

The client’s response normally is:

 

 

Why is it more?

 

 

Why can’t I play less?

 

 

 

That’s a good question,

 

 

 

Now what answer do you
want?

 

 

 

 

Let’s just stick to
the facts

 

 

 

The truth is that the natural gas market is a moving target

 

It is a commodity that is being traded 24/7

 

 

 

 

Several years ago (2008),

 

Natural gas prices shot up

 

 

Market prices were $12 – $14 a decatherm

 

Which translates into $1.20 – $1.40 a therm

 

 

That was the commodity cost to the providers

 

 

 

So consumers were even paying a higher rate

 

 

 

Since that time, prices have steadily dropped

 

 

 

You have probably seen me reference

 

That many analyst saw natural gas pricing

 

Reach a floor in

 

Late October / November 2010.

 

 

Problem is….

 

That nobody knows where the floor is…

 

 

Until you pass it

 

 

 

Well guess what??

 

 

Prices may once again be creating a floor as we speak.

 

 

The Nymex continues to drop

 

It has gone full circle over the last year

 

 

What do you mean the
last year?

 

 

It has gone full circle over the past 2 months

 

 

 

I have a friend, who
is a chiropractor,

 

He asked me what is
wrong with my neck.

 

 

I told him I have been
watching the Nymex!!!

 

 

 

The problem becomes….

 

 

There is more upside risk

 

Then there is downside risk.

 

 

Translated……

 

How much lower can prices go?

 

 

All future indications show prices going up

 

 

 

What are your options:

 

 

 

Float the market while prices continue to remain low

 

 

If you see prices starting to go up

 

You can always turn around and lock your position

 

 

There are various other options…

 

Winter locks…Lock in the price for months with the highest
usage

 

 

Basis locks….Lock in the transportation cost and float the
nymex

 

 

Anyone of these options can be used

 

To be proactive against future price spikes

 

 

 

 

Another issue:

 

 

 

We spoke in the past that natural gas prices

 

Are made up of 2 components

 

Nymex… The cost of natural gas out of the ground in Gulf of
Mexico

Basis…… The cost of transporting the gas from LA to your
local provider

 

Index…….The sum of the 2 or the base cost of the commodity
to the provider

 

 

While the Nymex prices are creating new floor space

 

The basis cost is higher than it should be

 

The result….

 

Adding a low Nymex cost

 

To a higher than normal basis cost

 

Gives you a higher overall cost

 

Then what you were paying over the last year

 

 

 

I find this all very
interesting…

 

(You have to say that
while you are rubbing your chin)

 

 

What should you do?

 

 

HBS presents all the options

 

 

We look at where the market has been

 

 

What are the future projections showing?

 

 

We look to educate our clients

 

So they have a full understanding of how the market works

 

 

We want our clients to feel comfortable

 

 

 

Knowing that they made the best decision

 

For their company

 

When all the facts were presented

 

 

 

To learn more about
deregulated energy opportunities for your business email george@hbsadvantage.com

 

Visit us on the web www.hutchinsonbusinesssolutions.com

Online Auctions

The deregulated energy market is causing a big buzz in this area. In the spring of 2010, NJ opened up deregulated opportunities to the residential market.

In January 2011, PA opened up the Peco territory to deregulation after a 5 year moratorium.

As the result, the market has been flooded with companies and individuals trying to capitalize on these opportunities.

Online Auction opportunities are now available. All you have to do is type buying deregulated energy online into your Google page and you will have multiple selections.

Also many companies have been promoting a Multi-level marketing approach to set up a grass roots effort in hopes of gaining penetration in the market.

.

As more consumers have grown more comfortable with on line purchasing, it seemed natural that this avenue would be an effective marketing option.

The only problem we see is that when buying energy in the deregulated market, you are dealing with a commodity. This puts a whole new spin on the opportunity.

This week, we would like to take a look at on line auctions.

Below is a plus-minus list we have developed to help you make an objective decision about purchasing energy on line versus using an independent broker.

On Line Auctions:

Plus

• Feel like you are getting a good deal by participating in an ecommerce transaction
• Potentially lower price by doing the ecommerce transaction 
• Potentially easier transaction since there is limited contact with 3^rd party energy suppliers
• Electricity is a commodity and customer’s management feels this is best process for doing transaction

 

Minus

• Can be more challenging to negotiate terms & conditions  
• Potentially less leverage with suppliers since there is no personal interaction
• Difficult determining what factors are included in the price.
  •  Is it fully loaded? (contains 7% loss transmission and sales tax)
  •  Is it a fixed rate or variable rate?
• How do you know when is the best time to buy
• Online auctioneers are brokers approaching the same providers we would be using.
• Many on line auction companies do not have any information on their website regarding the management of the company

 

Dealing with an Independent Broker (Hutchinson Business Solutions)

 

Plus   

• We represent all the major 3^rd party providers selling energy in deregulated sates
• We offer personal service, individually marketing your account to these providers
• We monitor market fluctuations and discuss timing with our clients
• We offer fixed price solutions (Other options available for large volume users)
• We make sure all prices received are fully loaded and are an apples to apples comparison to your local utility’s price to compare
• Due to our business relationships, we bring leverage to the deal
• We assist with customer’s legal team in negotiating the business terms of the contract as they may apply
• We provide options, defining the best terms and conditions and service the account throughout the term of the contract, addressing issues as they arise
• We have been advising customer risk management strategies in the deregulated markets for over 10 years.
• Opportunity to outsource many of the tasks involved with the energy procurement process while retaining the control and final decisions on any potential transaction

 

Minus

• The energy market is in a growth mode, many new faces and the information is sketchy.
• You must be sure to deal with a reputable company who will represent your best interest
• Many of the new companies are offering variable rates

 

At first glance you may think this overview is biased.

Yes, we are an independent broker. We take pride in the value we have brought to our clients in the deregulated market.

We have just seen too much abuse. The deregulated energy market is an unknown.

We take time to explain how the market works with each client. We want you to understand this concept and feel comfortable with your purchase.

Each account is unique. There is no one size fits all solution.

There are great opportunities for savings in the business market.

Know the facts!!!!

Look to ask the right questions.

Let HBS be your eyes and ears….

While you continue to do what you do best….

Run your day to day business.

To learn more about deregulated energy opportunitiews for your business email george@hbsadvantage.com

Visit us on the web www.hutchinsonbusinesssolutions.com