Natural Gas Prices Drop
December 12, 2014
It looks like the natural gas market
Has shaken off the fears
Of having a cold winter
Once again this year
After beating the drums
For 11 months
Driving up market prices
Now
That winter is here
The market sees no fear
And has been in free fall
Not to say
That things could change
Remember we are dealing
With the fickle energy market
We have heard many times
Timing is everything
Well you can’t say
I didn’t tell you
If you are currently
With the local provider
Or
You are floating with a 3rd party provider
Now’s the time to lock in on savings
Market prices are well below
What you would be paying
For those businesses
Who use gas
To heat their buildings
Statistics show
You use about 60% to 70%
Of your annual natural gas usage
Between the months
November and March
To heat your building
One cold snap
Can push prices thru the roof
It is smart to protect yourselves
During these high usage months
By locking into a competitive
Fixed rate contract
Give us a call
Or shoot us an email
We are here
To help you save money
Brrrr!
January 22, 2013
If you are heading out
In the next couple of days
You will see that winter…
Has finally come to visit us
The Highs are expected…..
In the low 20s
Adding the wind chill factor…
You will feel like it is…
In the single digits
Be sure to grab your scarf and gloves
And
Don’t forget to put a hat on…
It is said that….
You lose 90%
Of your body heat…
Thru your head
I thought that fact was recently….
Proven to be false?
A scientist did a study and found
There are no facts to support it
I said put a hat on…
Don’t you know there is a…..
Flu Epidemic going on
Do you want to listen to someone…
Experimenting on heat loss
Thru the head
Or
Be sick in bed for a week
I also heard…
There was a cold snap….
In California recently…
I saw student athletes
Having to wear sweat pants and gloves
To soccer practice
Because it was 55 degrees out
Can you image that?
Poor kids……
With all this cold weather rushing upon us
I checked to see how
The deregulated energy market
Has reacted
It has been relatively…
Unfazed
Yea it’s cold….
But there has been no extended
Cold temperatures
The deregulated
Natural Gas and Electric
Market prices..
Although not at the floor…
Have only risen slightly
And are still near….
A 10 year low
Starting off the New Year
Looking for savings
You will definitely find it….
In the…..
Deregulated Energy Market
Give us a call to find out more
And don’t forget…
To put a hat on
Smart Solutions for Smart Business
For more insight email george@hbsadvantage.com
Visit us on the web http://www.hutchinsonbusinesssolutions.com
The Rumbling Started………
January 7, 2013
Back in September
Right after Labor Day
Future forecast show
We are in for……
A cold winter
Thus began the long trudge….
Natural gas prices
Started inching up
In October
The drumbeats started
Beating louder
Forecasts are calling
For a cold winter
Natural gas prices
Inched up
A bit higher
All this was happening
As Natural gas storage levels
Remain at….
An all-time high
Future supplies are poised
To make the US
The world’s largest
Natural gas supplier
New finds and
Refined extraction methods show
We have over 100 years
Of natural gas reserves
November starts….
The drums keep beating
Forecast show that it is
Going to be
A cold winter
Prices inch up a bit higher
All the while
We have been experiencing
Higher than normal temperatures
Here it is January 2013
We have had some cold weather
But no long term stretches
Of cold weather
They are already forecasting
That beginning next week…..
A warm front will be coming in
And hanging for a couple of weeks
All this has created a
Natural gas market
Phenomena
The index
(The base cost of natural gas
To all providers)
Started to drop
So much for the higher prices
HBS has been working with our clients
Keeping them apprised of the opportunity
For the savings this presents
The basis (transportation cost)
Is inverted
That means the longer you go out
The less expensive it is
We have never seen this
In the 12 years we have been
Servicing the deregulated market
By locking in a
3 to 4 year
Basis position
Clients have been able
To add more certainty
To their future
Natural gas cost
This will allow the client to
Concentrate on managing the cost
Of the Nymex
ie: (gas out of the ground)
During the highest usage months
November thru March
For most clients
That is when 75% of their
Annual natural gas usage
Is consumed
Feel free to contact us…..
To learn more about
How you are able
To save in the deregulated
Natural Gas and Electric markets
Start the New Year off with Savings
That will always bring a
Smile to your face….
Hutchinson Business Solutions
Smart Solutions for Smart Business
For more insight contact george@hbsadvantage.com
Visit us on the web http://www.hutchinsonbusinesssolutions.com
Natural gas prices rise, benchmark oil up slightly
April 28, 2012
By SANDY SHORE, AP Business Writer–8 hours ago
Battered natural gas prices are getting a bit of a break as cooler spring weather raises expectations that demand may improve.
Natural gas rose 6 cents to finish at $2.186 per 1,000 cubic feet in Friday trading. That’s up nearly 15 percent from April 19 when the price hit the lowest level in more than a decade at $1.907 per 1,000 cubic feet.
The price has plunged this year as a natural gas production boom created a glut of supply and demand dropped during a mild winter.
Now, some in the market are suggesting demand will strengthen, which help boost prices.
Cooler weather moving across the Northeast, parts of the Midwest and the Rockies this weekend could prompt homeowners to turn up the heat, creating more need for natural gas.
In addition, utilities have been substituting cheaper natural gas for coal to generate electricity. As much as six billion cubic feet a day of natural gas has replaced coal-fired power generation this year, said Ron Denhardt, an analyst with Strategic Energy & Economic Research. Consumption on an annual basis is about 66 billion to 67 billion cubic feet a day.
In addition, some energy companies have cut production because low prices can make it unprofitable to drill for some types of natural gas.
Yet, several analysts believe any rally will be short-lived.
With May upon us, any pick-up in demand for heating will be brief. About 70 percent of the nation’s demand for natural gas comes during the winter to heat homes and businesses.
Natural gas inventories continue to build. Analysts say that underground storage could be filled to the brim by fall without additional production cuts or an extremely hot summer that boosts electricity demand for cooling.
“It’s fundamentally a disastrous market,” Denhardt said. “I can’t see any turnaround of any significance before November, December of this year.”
PFGBest analyst Phil Flynn said there has to be an even bigger drop in price to force companies to cut more production. He speculated that the price will test an all-time low of $1.35 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In other energy trading, oil prices rose slightly, as traders shrugged off a report that the economy grew more slowly in the first three months of the year as governments spent less and businesses cut back on investment. But consumers spent at the fastest pace in more than a year. The Commerce Department said Friday that the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the January-March quarter, compared with 3 percent in the final quarter of 2011.
Benchmark oil rose 38 cents to end at $104.93 per barrel in New York. Brent crude fell 9 cents to finish at $119.83 per barrel in London. Heating oil lost 1.37 cents to end at $3.1807 per gallon and gasoline futures rose 2.29 cents to finish at $3.2062 per gallon.
At the pump, gasoline prices were little changed at a national average of $3.826 per gallon, according to AAA, Wright Express and the Oil Price Information Service. That’s 8.5 cents less than a month ago and 5.3 cents lower than a year ago.
Copyright © 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Natural gas costs unlikely to remain low through 2011
January 24, 2011
David Parkinson – Globe and Mail Update Dec. 31, 2010 5:41PM EST
When Arthur Berman argues that natural gas is destined to have better prices in 2011 than it had in a mediocre 2010, he isn’t talking about technical price charts, or historical correlations, or relative valuations, or even supply-and-demand balances.
No, his view is more down to earth. He’s talking about geology.
“I’m a working petroleum geologist, I’m not a financial analyst,” said Mr. Berman, a prominent Houston-based energy consultant whose controversial views on the North American shale-gas phenomenon have raised eyebrows in the industry. “We probably have a lot less natural gas resource than is commonly believed. “So, what I see is that natural gas prices will not remain depressed. I’m not a price forecaster, but I have every reason to believe that a long position in natural gas [investing] is a smart position.”
The natural gas pricing story has been all about shale gas in 2010, and its fate in 2011 is closely tied to this big wild card, too. Thanks to advances in drilling technology for extracting gas from seams in shale rock, there has been a rapid expansion of drilling in shale plays that were once considered impossible to economically exploit. The resulting boom in production has unleashed substantial new supplies on the North American marketplace, outstripping demand and bloating inventories. Volumes of gas in U.S. storage facilities swelled to record levels last month – 40 per cent higher than they were 10 years ago, almost 20 per cent higher than five years ago – even as gas consumption has rebounded to near pre-recession levels.
That kept natural gas prices low and in decline for most of 2010. Even with the high-demand winter season approaching, prices struggled to stay above $4 (U.S.) per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange well into December – their weakest December prices in nearly a decade.
The majority of industry analysts believe the shale-gas boom will continue to keep supplies well above consumption levels in 2011, weighing down natural gas prices. “The fundamentals of oversupply are not likely to change in 2011,” said Peter Tertzakian, chief energy economist at ARC Financial Corp. in Calgary. “Since we expect U.S. natural gas demand growth to come to almost a standstill in 2011 and supply growth to stay in positive territory, the inventory glut remains a concern,” said analyst Dominic Schnider of UBS AG in a recent research note.
But a vocal minority – led by the likes of Mr. Berman and renowned long-time oil and gas forecaster Henry Groppe – believe shale gas may be a bubble that could begin to burst in 2011. They are concerned with both the extremely rapid rates at which production from new shale-gas wells drops off, and the high costs of development and production that suggest to them that producers won’t be willing to keep up the high pace of drilling in shale plays at these unprofitable prices much longer. “[Shale] is a great new resource. I don’t dispute for a moment the size of the resource or its importance,” said Mr. Berman, who, like Mr. Groppe, serves as a consultant to Toronto-based fund management company Middlefield Capital Corp. “What I question is, ultimately, what it will cost to produce the resource.” Mr. Berman’s analysis tells him that North American shale-gas reserves have been exaggerated; that “more than half of the commercial reserves are produced in the first year” of each well; and that the full costs for producing shale gas work out to about $7 per million BTU – far above the current selling price.
He believes companies have been encouraged to aggressively drill U.S. shale plays due to regulations requiring producers to either initiate drilling on their properties or lose them – they want to secure the land. But that won’t continue through 2011, he said. “As I listen to the comments of the executives of the companies that are most active in the shale plays in the U.S., they’re all saying that they’re going to continue to hold the land through the first half of 2011, and then you’re going to see a big decrease in [drilling] rig count,” Mr. Berman said. “They’re smart people; they’re not going to continue to do this beyond the time that they have to.” Instead, he said, companies will redirect their drilling rigs to oil properties, where the cost-to-price equation is much more profitable. That will slow natural gas volumes and change market perception of shale’s potential, he said – and that will push up prices. “It would not surprise me to see the end of 2011 start to see a notable recovery of price,” he said.
Mr. Tertzakian acknowledges that natural gas prices must eventually revert to at least high enough to cover “the marginal costs of producing natural gas in North America,” which he pegs at the $5 to $6 range. However, he doesn’t see that happening in 2011 – and he doesn’t envision a major drop-off in shale drilling or a serious hit to supplies over the next year. “There’s no shortage of gas in the ground. We can debate the technical nuances, but at the end of the day, it takes a certain amount of money to exploit these things – the only restriction is the availability of capital.” He expects some slowdown in natural-gas rig count in the second half of next year could moderate supplies, but that won’t do much to make up for what should continue to be a weak market in the first half – making for another year of 2010-like prices.
“Prices in 2011 will be similar to 2010,” agreed Bill Gwozd, vice-president of gas services at Calgary energy consulting and analysis firm Ziff Energy Group. “That’s not a healthy price for producers – but it’s quite nice for consumers.”
Who Hit the Switch?
December 9, 2010
We have been lucky over the pas t few years. We have been blessed with warmer than usual winter temperatures. I know; last year we had some major snowstorms but overall the winter temperatures have been warmer.
Over the last year we have seen the natural gas market prices react to these warmer temperatures. Storage numbers have been at a 5-year high and prices have continued to drop to their lowest sustaining level in the last 3 to 4 years.
Speaking with many energy analysts, they feel we may have hit the bottom and prices will slowly start inching up.
Inching up may be an understatement? Just in the last week, prices jumped over 10%. Hit with the sudden cold front the market took off.
The cost of buying natural gas on the open market is made up of 2 factors. Nymex (gas out of the ground to the banks of Louisiana) and Basis (the transportation cost for getting natural gas delivered to your local provider). These 2 factors combined give us the Index. This is the total wholesale cost to buy natural gas on the open market.
The last couple of weeks have seen the market in a holding pattern. Nymex prices were under $4.00 a decatherm ($.40 cents a therm) and it was a wait and see scenario. Should we have seen continued mild temperatures the market would have remained stable.
With the sudden switch to cold temperatures and forecast for a continued cold snap; the market did not inch up but leapt. Nymex prices open today, as of this writing, at $4.61 a decatherm. Measure this against the low opening on 10/25/10 of $3.29 a decatherm.
Prices are still low compared to where they were 2 to 3 years ago. In 2008, natural gas prices hit a high of $14 to $16 a decatherm ($1.40 to $1.60 a therm). Just last year (2009) we were looking at the average price to compare of around $10.00 a decathem ($1.00 a therm). We are now seeing fixed price positions in the low to mid $6.00 a decatherm range.
Each account is unique and priced individually, for pricing is based on demand factors. Many clients are seasonal clients and their biggest usage comes from heating their locations during the winter. Their natural gas prices would be higher than a client having a more even demand factor, for they use natural gas throughout the year (a restaurant would be a good example).
Some clients have benefited by floating the market, taking advantage of the falling prices over the last couple of years. Now may be the time to begin a discussion and review your options. There is more upside risk (chance of prices raising higher) than there is downside risk (market prices have been at a 4 year low).
You can lock the price going forward for a 1 or 2-year period, which will provide an overall savings from the average prices you have been paying over the last year or at the minimum, lock the winter month which will provide price certainty.
Should you feel this is only a temporary rise in market prices, you may choose to float the market and look for a continued flatness in pricing.
One other option to consider, should the float scenario be of interest, would be to lock the basis (transportation cost) and continue to float the nymex. Several of our clients have found success with this option in the past. This position is normally taken when they see the Nymex as being too high and feel the market will be dropping over time. In the past, if we saw basis price fall under $2.00 this was considered to be a good deal. The current basis prices are well under $2.00.
Should you like to know more about your deregulated gas options email george@hbsadvantage.com or call 856-857-1230
Visit us on the web www.hutchinsonbusinesssolutions.com
Deflated
October 25, 2010
It was a tough weekend.
First, the Phillies; expectations were high. We were supposed to win.
Did anyone tell the Giants? Either someone forgot or they were not listening. I have been accused of that; it is called selective hearing. Most husbands have been accused of that.
Either way the Boys of Summer loss their mojo and could not even come up with hits. Especially when runners were on the bases. Think of how the game ended. Runners on first and second; 2 outs; down by 1 run and Ryan Howard works up a 3-2 count.
Now what were we all taught way back in little league?
This goes back to basics! When you have a 3-2 count, you protect the plate. You swing at anything that could remotely be called a strike. You don’t look at a 3rd strike!
After all the ups and downs thru the season, we end up feeling deflated.
Wait till next year. Spring training starts in 103 days. This may be of little solace.
What happened to this year? The season seems to have ended prematurely.
Well, we can always turn our attention to the Eagles. They have been on a roll, 4-2 going into Sunday’s game with Tennessee.
Kolb….Vick……….Vick…Kolb
Seems like a good problem for Andy Reid to have? They have both elevated their game and are playing at a high level. Can they remain healthy?
The defense has been putting pressure on the quarterback, controlling the run and not allowing the other teams gain any momentum.
The receivers seem to be having a protective shield around them. Taking the ball downfield, sometimes almost scoring at will.
That was until yesterdays’ 4th quarter disaster against Tennessee. 27 points? Don’t you love when they start playing the prevent defense? A recipe for disaster, bend; don’t stretch. Who came up with that defense anyway?
For Philadelphia fans it was a weekend that took the wind out of our sails. It left all the diehard fans feeling deflated. The old kick in the gut never seems to feel good but we keep coming back.
There’s always next game, next week, next season.
Philly….don’t you just love it?
Now you may be thinking why is he talking about philly sports and how does the word deflated tie into HBS?
Good question.
Most of the time when you think of the word deflated it tends to have a negative connotation. However, for us, the word can be seen in a positive context.
When the utility market is deflated, that means the commodity (natural gas and electric) market prices are down, which translate into savings for you, the client.
How much has the natural gas price index dropped?
From its’ high of $14.34 a decatherm in July 2008, it has slowly dropped over 70% during the past 2 years. In October 2010, the index was $4.12 a decatherm.
Pretty amazing!
Where’s the bottom? Some analysts think we may have neared the bottom and prices will start inching up, especially now that winter is just ahead of us. However, should we see warmer winter temperatures prevail, we may see prices drop even further.
HBS has been advising our clients to take advantage of the downside.
You may choose to lock in on a price for a 1 or 2 year term, thereby protecting yourself from market fluctuations or you may choose to float the market index and take advantage of the current downside savings.
With falling natural gas prices, you will also see this will reflect in lower prices for the deregulated electric market prices.
Why you may ask?
Well, 30% of the electric in the US is generated by natural gas. So natural gas seems to be a natural indicator on electric prices. As natural gas prices go down, so do electric prices.
If you are a business spending a minimum of $5000 a month for either natural gas or electric, you should be looking at the savings being found in the deregulated market.
Since deregulation started in the late 1990’s, the local providers were told they could no longer be in the supply business. You may choose to get your natural gas or electric from a 3rd party provider or you may continue receiving your supply from the local provider at a default price which is normally higher than the deregulated market price.
Many of our clients find out they do qualify and are taking advantage of this deregulated opportunity.
If you like to know more, email george@hbsadvantage.com
We know that the economy has been tough on business. However, HBS has found a silver lining by bringing deregulated utility saving to our clients.
To find out if you qualify, all we need is a copy of you latest natural gas or electric bill from your local provider. We will also need a letter of authorization that will allow us to pull the annual usage for your account(s). With this information, we will be able to validate what you are currently paying and present what opportunity for savings may be available for you.
Now is the time to take deflated utility prices and let them work for you.
Let the savings fall to the bottom line!
You may find it brings a smile to your face.
I Think We Just Dodged a Bullet
October 5, 2010
I think we just dodged a bullet! Last week the meteorologists were having a field day tracking this massive storm that was supposed to hit the east coast. High winds, heavy rains. Normally, when we get a bye, the storm sweeps out into the ocean. This storm actually went inland, west of the I95 corridor. Sad to say, they did get substantial flooding.
Why am I talking about the weather, you may ask? Because this is my article, I can choose a topic. Seriously! … Because weather plays a very big part of monitoring natural gas commodity cost.
The current natural gas prices are still the lowest they have been in the last 4 years. September’s NY Index price (the price that providers buy gas) was $.39 cents a therm compare this to $1.41 in July 2008. Quite a difference! Why, you may ask?
First of all, natural gas storage levels continue to be at a 5 year high. Add to that, the shale natural gas that been found in western PA. They are saying this could provide natural gas to the US for the next 100 years.
It is the old supply and demand theory, until the market deems it appropriate to ignore.
For now, market activity show that this is a great time to be buying gas in the deregulated natural gas market. Remember, that since deregulation, the local providers are no longer in the supply business. Therefore they charge you a default rate, which in normally higher. They buy natural gas wholesale and bill their customers’ retail.
HBS puts our clients in a wholesale position. Our clients are finding saving from 10% upto 20+%, depending on who your local provider is.
Since 30% of the electric is generated from natural gas, it also plays an important influence to the current market electric prices. They are also at a 4-year low.
To qualify your commercial natural gas or electric bill should be a minimum of $3000 a month each. Many of our clients are finding substantial saving in the deregulated utility market.
Should you like to know more about savings in the deregulated natural gas and electric market email george@hbsadvantage.com or call 856-857-1230.